SPY dropped 35% since its all-time high in the last 5 weeks.
At the moment traders are looking for direction and any estimate is just that .. an estimate.
Our models set two lines for SPY to cross and trigger a meaningful alert:
- 245 to the upside, crossing this line to the upside should increase risk in the long portfolio, the second line for long risk increase is 270
- 220 to the downside, this is the lowest the market has been in this downturn, crossing this line to the downside significantly increases the risk in the short portfolio (or cash)